Scramble 2.0: The New Great Game in Africa and the Global Power Rivalry
Introduction
For the first time since the "Scramble for Africa" period in the 19th century, Africa finds itself at the center of such intense global competition. This time, the actors on the stage are not traditional colonial empires, but global powers driven by geoeconomic interests, energy security, and digital infrastructure goals. The power vacuum created by France's withdrawal from the Sahel region is being rapidly filled by Russia's institutionalized security network (Africa Corps), China's infrastructure-focused debt diplomacy, and the diplomatic-technological pivot of the US and the West. Africa is no longer merely a 'continent of aid'; it is viewed as the future hub for energy, technology, and especially critical minerals and a young population.
II. Strategic Rupture: France's Withdrawal from the Sahel and the Birth of a New Power Vacuum
The most critical catalyst for "Scramble 2.0" in Africa is the rapid retreat of the former colonial power, France, from the Sahel region. This withdrawal created not only a military vacuum but also an ideological and political void, igniting the global competition.
Causes and Process
The process leading to France's withdrawal is summarized by years of accumulated failures and a climax of public outcry:
Military Ineffectiveness: Despite Operation Barkhane (2014–2022) and prior operations, France failed to achieve lasting success in containing jihadist groups (ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates) in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso. The prolonged military presence reinforced the perception of an 'occupying force' among the local population.
Chain of Coups and Anti-Western Sentiment: A succession of military coups in the Sahel, including the July 26, 2023 coup in Niger, overthrew Western-backed governments. The resulting military regimes adopted anti-French and Pan-Africanist rhetoric to legitimize their rule.
Sovereignty Pressure: The new military governments, backed by popular support, explicitly revoked France's authority to remain on their soil and demanded the closure of French military bases. To avoid a full-blown diplomatic crisis, France was compelled to withdraw its troops entirely from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger towards the end of 2023.
Strategic Consequence
This withdrawal is not merely a logistical problem; it signifies the loss of credibility for the Western model of security and democracy in Africa. The resulting vacuum created an ideal environment for actors opposed to the West's democratization mandates, particularly Russia and Turkey, to rapidly enter the arena.
III. The Security Competition and Geostrategic Maneuvers of Global Actors
A. Russia: Institutionalized Security Network and Geopolitical Depth
Russia's influence in Africa has been institutionalized through Africa Corps, formally established mid-2024 and brought under the direct control of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) after the collapse of Wagner.
The Rise and Structure of Africa Corps (Mid-2024)
Russia, through Africa Corps, offers military regimes a comprehensive "regime survival" package that includes not only combat training but also the protection of critical infrastructure and mining sites. This systematization has granted Moscow access to valuable minerals like gold, diamonds, and uranium in countries like Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR) in exchange for stability. This transformation confirms that Russia's Africa strategy has moved beyond the shadow of an individual actor and become an official state policy.
Strategic Geopolitical Goals and Global Connection
Russia's strategy in Africa extends beyond the war in Ukraine to encompass broader global objectives:
Bypassing Western Sanctions: Valuable minerals and resources acquired from Africa are used to circumvent Western financial systems through shadow trade networks, enhancing Moscow's economic resilience. Africa serves as a vital front for breaking international isolation.
Opening a Geopolitical Front: By supporting anti-Western regimes in Africa, Moscow aims to divert global attention from Ukraine and engage the West on a secondary front.
Sea Access Capability: Efforts to establish logistical points, such as a potential Red Sea base in Sudan, demonstrate Russia's long-term geopolitical ambition to project naval power into the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean and secure its logistical networks.
B. US: Strategic Focus Shift and Diplomatic Turnaround Attempt (2025)
Washington's long-standing passivity and its delayed focus on the China-Russia competition in Africa have played a critical role in the decline of its influence.
Diplomatic Turnaround Attempt and the Re-Activation of PGII
The US has sought to provide a multifaceted answer to this strategic vacuum, particularly since early 2025. This response involves a pivot from traditional military presence (AFRICOM) to geoeconomic and diplomatic competition:
Nairobi Strategic Hub: The US Department of State's establishment of the new Africa Strategic Center based in Nairobi in the first quarter of 2025 indicates a shift in its diplomatic and intelligence focus to East Africa. This move aims to counterbalance China's military base in Djibouti and address the security of Red Sea trade routes.
Technological Competition: The re-activation of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) project for Africa aims to offer a transparent, sustainable, and, critically, data security-focused alternative to China's debt-driven infrastructure. The Biden administration has allocated billions to projects supported by companies like Google and Microsoft to prevent China from controlling the digital networks, thereby shifting the competition into the domain of digital sovereignty.
C. Türkiye: Balancing Middle Power and Crisis Resolution Capacity
Türkiye has established a unique sphere of influence in Africa by pursuing a pragmatic, two-pronged strategy that avoids the military/political impositions or debt traps of traditional powers.
Technological Superiority and SIHAs
Türkiye’s Bayraktar TB2 and ANKA SIHAs (Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), exported to several African nations including Sahel states (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso), have provided a fast, cost-effective security solution compared to the expensive and politically conditioned systems offered by the West. This technology has boosted the recipient countries’ sovereign military capabilities, earning Türkiye significant prestige among local militaries. Defence cooperation agreements signed rapidly after the 2023 Niger Coup exemplify Türkiye's diplomatic agility.
Crisis Resolution Capacity: The Depth of the Ankara Declaration
Türkiye’s efforts to mediate the serious crisis between Somalia and Ethiopia attest to Ankara's diplomatic weight.
Nature of the Crisis and Necessity: The tension escalated following Ethiopia’s January 2024 signing of a "Memorandum of Understanding on Sea Access" with separatist Somaliland, which directly threatened Somalia's territorial integrity and risked regional warfare, simultaneously jeopardizing the stability of the vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Ankara's Role: Türkiye assumed the role of a "neutral reliable mediator" due to its unique position—it is perceived as neither an enemy of Somalia (hosting the largest Turkish military base) nor Ethiopia (with SIHA agreements). Following intensive diplomatic efforts, the official Ankara Declaration was signed on December 12, 2024. This Declaration prevented further escalation, proving Türkiye's capacity to act not just as an economic or military power, but as a key to regional stability.
IV. Geoeconomics and Digital Influence: The War for Resources, Debt Traps, and New Alternatives
A. China: Debt Trap Pressure and the Limits of Hegemonic Control
China's infrastructure financing under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) constitutes the deepest economic footprint in Africa, but the escalating debt burden throughout 2024 has brought the sustainability of this model into question.
Financial Pressure: In 2024, key countries like Zambia, Kenya, and Ghana were forced to begin negotiations with China for debt restructuring, intensifying criticism of China's "debt trap diplomacy." Many analysts view Chinese debt as a means of indirectly seizing strategic assets (ports, critical infrastructure).
Digital Hegemony: The construction of national data centers and e-government systems by Chinese firms like Huawei and ZTE gives China indirect control over future data flow and digital sovereignty, posing a long-term threat of technological dependence that the US is targeting with its 2025 PGII strategy.
B. US and EU: The Struggle for Ethical Financing with PGII and Global Gateway
The West is responding to China's model by offering an alternative of ethical, transparent, and sustainable financing.
The PGII and Global Gateway Difference: Western projects impose high standards on environment, labor rights, and anti-corruption. However, these high standards often prolong the financing process, limiting the West's ability to respond quickly to the urgent infrastructure needs of African nations.
The Critical Success Condition: The measure of the West's success will not only be the amount of funding but also the speed and flexibility with which it can bypass bureaucracy. The conditional and slow nature of Western processes risks making them less attractive than China’s swift, no-strings-attached financing.
C. Africa's Critical Minerals and Role in the Global Supply Chain
Africa is a vital geoeconomic region, being the main source of critical minerals (Cobalt, Lithium, Uranium, Platinum) that are revolutionizing 21st-century technologies (electric vehicles, batteries).
Chinese Monopoly: China holds an almost complete monopoly not just over the mining, but also the processing and refining of these minerals (e.g., Cobalt in DRC). The West must develop aggressive strategies to break this dependency for its energy transition goals.
Renewable Energy Potential: The continent's vast solar and wind energy potential is crucial for global climate and energy security targets, attracting significant investment, including from Gulf states, as part of their diversification strategies.
V. Middle East Bloc: The Third Strategic Player and Religious Influence in Africa
The Middle East constitutes the third major strategic bloc in the competition for Africa, with actors typically operating along the Gulf (Finance/Logistics) and Iran (Religious Influence) axes.
A. Gulf States (UAE, Qatar, Oman): Financial and Logistics Dominance
The Gulf states are among the fastest-growing investors in Africa, driven by the need to diversify their economies and secure logistics and maritime safety across the Red Sea/Horn of Africa.
Financial Sphere of Influence: Qatar and the UAE are establishing long-term financial dominance through massive direct investments in African energy (including renewables), agriculture (land acquisition), and port infrastructure.
Red Sea Control: UAE companies like DP World have acquired strategic control over ports in the Horn of Africa and East Africa (e.g., Djibouti, Somaliland), increasing Abu Dhabi's influence over global maritime trade routes and the logistics of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
B. Israel: Security Technology and Diplomatic Deepening
Israel is building influence in Africa through security technologies, counter-terrorism intelligence, and agricultural expertise. Africa is a critical area for Israel to break diplomatic isolation and forge strong ties, particularly with East African nations (Ethiopia, Kenya).
C. Iran: Religious and Cultural Influence Competition
Iran's influence, while less economic than the Gulf states, is characterized by the use of religious and cultural soft power through Shia and Islamic communities in East and West Africa. This has sparked an ideological influence competition with the Sunni Gulf states, often utilizing Africa's religious demographics as a field for proxy rivalries.
VI. Conclusion and Future Projections: Africa Steering Its Own Destiny
A. The New Multipolar Equilibrium
The "Scramble 2.0" competition has proven that Africa is no longer a passive geopolitical area but a center of power asserting its own interests. The acceptance of the African Union as a permanent G20 member in September 2025 is the most tangible diplomatic evidence of this transformation within the international system. The competition has transcended traditional unipolar or bipolar logic and settled into a multipolar equilibrium where the main actors align their offerings with Africa’s critical needs:
Russia offers security and access to critical resources in exchange for political backing, providing a haven against Western democratization demands.
China establishes infrastructure and digital hegemony with unmatched speed and scale.
The US and the West enforce ethical financing and data security standards through PGII and Global Gateway, challenging the Chinese debt model.
Türkiye provides pragmatic technological flexibility (SIHAs) and crisis resolution capacity, exemplified by the Ankara Declaration.
African leaders have chosen to use this competition as a strategic lever, leveraging the strengths of each actor to maximize their national development and stability goals.
B. Future Projections: Inter-Actor Relations and Africa’s Management Strategy
Over the next 3–5 years, geopolitical processes and inter-actor relations in Africa will be shaped by the continent's increasing leverage:
Areas of Conflict and Potential Cooperation:
Escalation of US-China Rivalry: The rivalry between China's infrastructure hegemony and the US's digital security-focused PGII will become direct and sharp over control of 5G networks and critical mineral supply chains. African nations will focus on leveraging this competition to maximize technology transfer and financial benefits.
Türkiye-Russia Dynamic: Converging Interests and Influence Tussles: In the Sahel, both Russia (Africa Corps) and Türkiye (SIHAs) are filling the void left by the West. These two powers possess a strategic potential for cooperation in counterbalancing Western pressure. However, covert competition and friction over military spheres of influence and mining concessions (Mali, Burkina Faso) are inevitable.
Middle East's Quiet Ascent: Gulf states (UAE, Qatar) will continue to quietly increase their influence through financial assets and port investments (logistics control). This financial power is expected to occasionally function as a capital source supporting either Russia's resource operations or China's infrastructure projects.
Africa's Management Strategy and Inclinations:
Pragmatism and Diversification: African nations will continue to maximize diversification instead of relying on a single actor. The strategy of getting security from Russia, rapid port construction from China, institutional advice from the West, and effective SIHAs for counter-terrorism from Türkiye will be key.
Inclination Trend: Due to internal political stability and urgent development needs, African leaders will maintain a natural inclination toward actors (China and Türkiye) that offer no political preconditions and deliver quick results. The slow, ethical processes of the West will remain a persistent competitive disadvantage. The power of self-determination will be the continent's strongest strategic tool in negotiating the best terms for every deal.
From an international political analysis perspective, the most salient outcome of "Scramble 2.0" is the complete collapse of the old bipolar world order logic. Neither the US nor China retains the power to unilaterally dominate the continent. Middle power solutions—such as Türkiye's SIHAs, the Gulf's financial might, and Russia's proxy security networks—are fragmenting the global balance of power and placing Africa's leverage at a historical peak. Africa is no longer a waiting geopolitical prize; it is the new geopolitical center that dictates which power plays which role.
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