The Autopsy of the Liberal Order: Macron, Xi, and Europe’s Strategic Solitude

 

Introduction

French President Emmanuel Macron’s summit with President Xi Jinping in Beijing witnessed a historical rupture, going far beyond the platitudes of "constructive dialogue" often found in diplomatic literature. As we approach the end of 2025, this summit served as a laboratory environment, revealing how the global order is being reshaped amidst "frozen conflicts" and "hot trade wars."

Macron’s post-summit warning that "There is a risk of the international order unraveling" is not merely a caution; it is the highest-level admission that the Western-centric order—established at the 1945 Yalta Conference, solidified during the Cold War, and declared victorious with the "End of History" thesis in the 1990s—is no longer functional.

In this analysis, we move beyond the headlines to open the real files on the table: From the Kindleberger Trap to Europe's fear of de-industrialization, and from China's "Wedge Strategy" to the new era of "multi-alignment."

🌍 1. Anatomy of a Systemic Crisis: The "Kindleberger Trap" and Hegemonic Void

Macron’s diagnosis that "the order is unraveling" is the embodiment of the "Hegemonic Stability Theory" in international relations. This admission from the heart of the Western alliance points to the dangerous "interregnum" the global system is currently traversing.

This situation aligns with the theory Charles Kindleberger used to explain the Great Depression of 1929: The old hegemon (the USA) no longer possesses the capacity or will to finance and manage the system alone; while the rising power (China) does not yet have the intention or legitimacy to shoulder this responsibility.

• The Vacuum Effect: Power abhors a vacuum. The authority void left between US isolationism and China’s selective engagement is causing regional powers to become more aggressive and international law to turn into a mere "text of wishes."

• The Revisionist Challenge: Xi Jinping, through his conceptualization of a “Community of Common Destiny,” proposes an alternative, hierarchical, and state-centric set of norms to the West’s rule-based system. Macron is concerned that this new set will reduce Europe from a "subject" to an "object."

🇪🇺🇨🇳 2. The Geo-economic War: "Weaponized Interdependence"

While the hottest agenda item of the summit appeared to be trade, the deep undercurrent is Europe's De-industrialization. The relationship model is no longer classical Free Trade, but rather the doctrine of "Weaponized Interdependence" as defined by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman.

• Neo-Mercantilism and EV Wars: To overcome domestic demand contraction, China is exporting its "overcapacity." The European market has been flooded with state-subsidized, cheap Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs). This poses an existential threat to the European automotive industry.

• Europe's Green Dilemma: Brussels is compelled to meet its ambitious climate goals (Green Deal). Ironically, however, China holds a near-monopoly on the solar panels, batteries, and wind turbine components required to reach these goals. Europe is currently facing a strategic paradox: Either meet climate goals and surrender industrial independence to China, or erect protectionist walls and lag behind in the green transition.

🔥 3. Geopolitical Chess: China's "Wedge Strategy"

The background of Beijing's special interest in Macron lies in the "Wedge Strategy," a modern version of the classic "Divide and Rule" tactic.

• The Transatlantic Rift: China's grand strategy is to break the US policy of containment. It views Europe as the weakest link in this chain. By offering economic carrots, Beijing aims to mentally and economically decouple Europe from the US security umbrella.

• Macron’s Neo-Gaullism: Following France's traditional "Gaullist" policy, Macron declares he does not wish to be squeezed between the US and China. His emphasis on not becoming a "vassal state" of the US in a Taiwan crisis or Indo-Pacific tensions creates discomfort in Washington but satisfaction in Beijing. However, this quest for "Strategic Autonomy" is read as "unreliability" by Eastern European nations (Poland, the Baltics) who feel the Russian threat breathing down their necks.

🧭 4. 2030 Projection: Multipolarity or "Multi-alignment"?

Macron’s warning of "unraveling" certifies the beginning of a new era in international relations where the rigid boundaries of blocs are melting away, replaced by "Multi-alignment."

• Transactional Diplomacy: The ideological loyalties of the Cold War are dead. "Swing States" like India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Turkey now take positions based on the situation. This flexible structure—working with Russia on energy, the West on security, and China on trade—nullifies the West's imposition of "You are either with us or against us."

• Institutional Paralysis: Institutions like the UN Security Council, G20, and WTO have proven incapable of managing the hybrid crises of 2025. Macron predicts that if these institutions cannot be reformed, the world will revert to the "law of the jungle."

🔮 5. Future Projections: Scenarios for 2026 and Beyond

The Macron–Xi summit is not a singular event but a harbinger of the approaching storm. In light of the data on the table and diplomatic signals behind closed doors, the strategic projections for the next 5 years are as follows:

🇪🇺 The European Union: "Strategic Schizophrenia" and the Risk of Museumification

Europe will experience deep "Strategic Schizophrenia" in the coming period.

• Internal Fragmentation: The continent will be politically divided between the "Americanist East Wing" (Poland, Baltics) and the "Autonomist West Wing" (France, partially Germany).

• Economic Scenario: If Brussels fails to manage the "de-risking" process with China, European industry will lose its competitiveness, and the continent faces the risk of turning into an "open-air museum" visited by wealthy tourists.

🇺🇸 The USA: "Pacific Pivot" and Alliance Fatigue

Washington will be forced to accept Europe's flirtation with China not as "disloyalty," but as a "reality."

• Shift of Focus: As the US shifts 70% of its resources to the Indo-Pacific, it will increasingly seek to transfer European security (including the Ukraine issue) to Europeans.

• Pressure Policy: The US will increase "Us or Them" pressure on allies regarding technology transfer and semiconductors, triggering new customs crises in Transatlantic trade.

🇹🇷 The Region and Turkey: The Golden Age of the "Non-Aligned"

The "unraveling" mentioned by Macron is actually a historic window of opportunity for "Game-Changer Middle Powers" like Turkey.

• Central Country Position: As tension between the two blocs rises, the value of actors (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India) who do not fully pledge allegiance to either the West or the East, and who can talk to both sides, will increase.

• Corridor Wars: In the competition between China's Belt and Road and the West's IMEC corridor, alternative routes like Turkey's "Development Road" will elevate Ankara from a geopolitical "hub" to an indispensable "interface."

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📌 Final Word: Where Does the Strategic Compass Point?

The global order has entered that uncanny "twilight zone" described by the Italian thinker Gramsci: The old is dying and the new cannot be born.

In this transition process:

• China exercises "strategic patience," believing time is on its side.

• Europe is trapped between its prosperity and its security.

• The USA is tightening its defense lines to maintain hegemonic power.

Macron’s warning is a clear projection: In the second quarter of the 21st century, the winners will not be those who take shelter in a camp, but the nations with "strategic autonomy" capable of sailing their own ships through the chaotic waves.