Why Did the US Pivot? The New Power Map in Syria and the Liquidation of the SDF

Introduction

As we enter the final days of 2025, global attention remains largely fixated on the steppes of Eastern Europe. However, the true structural rupture altering the course of history is occurring silently in the heart of Mesopotamia. The U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) decision to bypass non-state actors (SDF/YPG)—defined as "strategic partners" for a decade—and conduct joint operations directly with the "New Syrian Transitional Government" constitutes the official declaration that an era in the Middle East has closed.

This development cannot be read merely as a tactical maneuver on the ground. It signifies the United States abandoning the "Proxy War" doctrine it has maintained since 2014, in favor of a "State-to-State Engagement" doctrine. As the cards are reshuffled on the ground, geopolitical fault lines extending from Ankara to Tel Aviv, and from Washington to Damascus, are being reshaped in ways that challenge classical alliance theories.

This week, shaking off the dust of propaganda, we provide an in-depth analysis of the architecture of the "New Middle East," the future of organized non-state entities, and the regional security equation.

1. Doctrine Shift: The End of "Hybrid War" and the Return of the State

The operation conducted in the Rif Dimashq (Rural Damascus) region between November 24-27, featuring CENTCOM forces shoulder-to-shoulder with the Syrian Ministry of Interior, is not a simple munitions disposal activity. It is the most concrete indicator that Washington has transitioned from "Sustainability" to an "Exit Strategy" in Syria.

The strategic rationale behind this radical pivot by the U.S. rests on three fundamental pillars:

  1. The Exhaustion of "Marginal Utility" of Non-State Actors: Pentagon reports and strategy desks in Washington indicate that the cost of relationships with non-state actors like the SDF now outweighs the tactical benefits provided. While it is possible to suppress ISIS with a militia force, achieving "manageable stability" is impossible. The U.S. has concluded that the region’s chaos can only be resolved through an accountable "Central Authority."

  2. Search for an Institutional Interlocutor: In international law and diplomacy, the only subject that can be addressed regarding border security and territorial control is the "State." To legitimize its presence on the ground and protect its long-term interests, the U.S. has chosen the New Damascus Administration—which is attempting to integrate into the international system—over "proxy forces."

  3. Restoration of Intra-NATO Cohesion: The U.S. choice of local partners in Syria had created irreparable damage in relations with its NATO ally, Turkey. With this move, Washington aims to repair the fracture on the southern flank of the transatlantic alliance and achieve strategic alignment with Ankara.

2. Psychology of Actors on the Ground: "Spoiler" Reflexes and the War for Legitimacy

Putting aside tables and descending into the mind maps and strategic calculations of the actors, a "War for Legitimacy" is evidently unfolding on the ground:

The Syrian Transitional Government (Damascus): The "Hobbesian Ideal of Sovereignty"

For the new administration in Damascus, this operation with the U.S. is reminiscent of Thomas Hobbes’ concept of the "Leviathan." Damascus seeks to reclaim the monopoly on the use of force, thereby ending the fragmented structure within its territory. This operation is a message from Damascus to the world: "I am no longer a failed state; I am a sovereign actor capable of cooperating with global powers."

SDF / YPG: "Abandonment Syndrome and Asymmetric Violence"

The organization is currently gripped by the trauma of the classic American foreign policy practice of "partner abandonment," stretching from Vietnam to Afghanistan. CENTCOM’s rapprochement with Damascus has demoted the organization from the status of an "ally" to that of a potential "threat" or a "bargaining chip." Reports of attacks targeting civilian infrastructure on the ground are indicative of behavior defined in literature as a "Spoiler." Acting with the reflex of "If I am not at the table, I will overturn the table," the organization is attempting to provoke international intervention by spreading conflict to civilian areas or to prove its indispensability by creating chaos.

3. The Geopolitical Triangle: "Realpolitik" Consensus on the Ankara - Washington - Damascus Line


This "U-turn" signals the unraveling of the region's most complex geopolitical knot. Turkey’s long-standing thesis that "Regional design cannot be achieved through non-state armed actors" has aligned with the realities on the ground.

  • Security Architecture and Border Doctrine: An implicit consensus is forming along the Washington-Ankara-Damascus line. This consensus is based on the principle that border security must be ensured by state armies, not militia groups. For the U.S., this provides a secure ground for withdrawal; for Turkey, it means the negation of a terror corridor on its border; for Damascus, it signifies the restoration of territorial integrity. This represents a rare "Win-Win-Win" scenario.

  • Loss of Function for the YPG: With this move by the U.S., the YPG’s greatest asset—the narrative of being "the West's ground force against ISIS"—has collapsed. The transfer of the fight against ISIS to Damascus removes the YPG as a strategic asset and transforms it into a "security problem" hindering regional stability.

4. Regional Security and the Disarmament Process: The End of the Organized Structure?

The threat perception at the center of Turkey’s national security strategy is entering a new phase with this global shift. The issue must be read not merely as domestic policy, but as a process of regional "Demilitarization."

  • Loss of Strategic Depth: For an insurgency or terror movement to survive, it requires a "Safe Haven" and "Logistical Support." The withdrawal of the U.S. umbrella and the region coming under legitimate state control destroys this "strategic depth." It becomes theoretically and practically impossible for a structure that has lost field dominance in Syria to generate operational capability across the border (inside Turkey).

  • Financial and Logistical Strangulation: The transfer of energy resources east of the Euphrates to the Damascus administration will collapse the organization’s billion-dollar illicit economy. A structure with dried-up financial resources, lost diplomatic support, and geographical encirclement will lose its ability to mobilize. This creates a foundation where Turkey can achieve its border security goals through regional diplomacy and intelligence cooperation rather than military operations.

5. The Israel Paradox: Why is Tel Aviv Silent?

A detail often missed in Middle East analyses: Why is Israel, the closest U.S. ally, remaining silent on the strengthening of the Syrian army and the return of central authority?

The answer lies in Israel’s "Hierarchy of Threats."

For the Israeli strategic mind, the primary threat is uncontrolled non-state militia groups roaming its borders (Golan Heights), with unclear accountability and easy manipulation by Iran. A Damascus administration established post-Assad, under U.S. guidance and with a strengthened Sunni backbone, acts as a "barrier cutting off the Iranian corridor" for Israel.

Tel Aviv prefers a "responsible state" it can hold accountable as a neighbor over an "unpredictable organization." Therefore, it gives strategic approval from behind the scenes to Washington's flirtation with Damascus.

6. Conclusion and Future Projections: 2026 Scenarios

The Rif Dimashq operation is not an end, but the opening move of a new order. In light of historical data and trends on the ground, the following scenarios are on the table for the next 12 months:

  • Scenario A: "Coercive Integration"

    Under the guarantorship of the U.S. and Turkey, the Damascus administration will offer a final exit ramp to the SDF: "Surrender heavy weapons, transfer the administrative structure to the central government." This offer would mean the liquidation of the organization's military wing and the articulation of its civil wing into local administrations.

  • Scenario B: "Return of Refugees and Demographic Restoration"

    The establishment of central authority (via the U.S./Turkey/Damascus consensus) will create the necessary "security" and "infrastructure" ground for the return of millions displaced by the war. The channeling of energy revenues into reconstruction will accelerate this process.

  • Scenario C: "Energy Geopolitics"

    Syrian oil and gas will no longer be a financing tool for conflict but a vehicle for regional integration. Ensuring the security of energy lines holds the potential to influence the energy equation in the Eastern Mediterranean as well.

Final Word:

The waters in Syria are not settling; rather, they are changing their course. The era of "Grey Zones" is closing, and a new period of "Defined Borders and Responsibilities" is beginning. The U.S. abandonment of a militia-focused strategy is the strongest opportunity to unravel the spiral of chaos that has held the region captive for years.

Our duty is to see the grand strategy behind the fog and present the reader with a perspective free from jingoism.


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